| Party | Projected vote share | Projected vote share (Low to high range) |
| 🟡 SNP | 37% (+5 from 2017) | 34-40% |
| 🔴 Labour | 24% (+4 from 2017) | 21-27% |
| 🔵 Conservatives | 18% (-7 from 2017) | 15-21% |
| 🟠Liberal Democrats | 8% (+2 from 2017) | 5-11% |
| 🟢 Scottish Greens | 6% (+2 from 2017) | 3-9% |
| âš« Independents | 6% (-4 from 2017) | 3-9% |
| 🔵 Alba | 1% (new) | 0-4% |
There we have it! The final projection for the local elections. This projection was based on opinion polls and surveys released throughout the campaign, rounding up to averages and also taking the previous elections into account as well.
Final projection vs final result
| Party | Final projection | Actual result | Within margin of error |
| 🟡 SNP | 37% (34-40%) | 34.1% | 🟢 Yes (+2.9% difference) |
| 🔴 Labour | 24% (21-27%) | 21.8% | 🟢 Yes (+2.2% difference) |
| 🔵 Conservative | 18% (13-21%) | 19.7% | 🟢 Yes (-1.7% difference) |
| 🟠Liberal Democrats | 8% (5-11%) | 8.6% | 🟢 Yes (on the nail) |
| 🟢 Scottish Greens | 6% (3-9%) | 6.0% | 🟢 Yes (on the nail) |
| ⚫ Independent | 6% (3-9%) | 8.4% | 🟢 Yes (-2.4% difference) |
| 🔵 Alba | 1% (0-3%) | 0.7% | 🟢 Yes (+0.3% difference) |
Ventus has managed to predict the election very well. All party percentages that we predicted all fell within the margin of error with the Liberal Democrats and Scottish Greens projections on the nail and the other parties within under 3% from the projection.
Breakdown
🟡 SNP
(could be between 34-40%)
The SNP are on course for their best ever local election results if this projection proves to be correct. We are projecting the SNP on 37%, up 5% from 2017. Within a margin of error, they could score as low as 34% but high as 40%. Opinion polls have had the SNP in the mid-40s but we feel it is overestimated as we take turnout and previous polls into account.
BritainElects have suggested that the SNP could lose up to 12 seats, at best they could gain 3 seats, at worst could lose 25 seats, this however isn’t line with polling and other projections and the voting system is different in Scotland – however it could very well be true, but we’ll have to wait and see
We project that the SNP could potentially lose some ground to Labour in some parts but we are also projecting that there could very well be a majority in Dundee in a best case scenario for the SNP, it is a toss-up there.
The SNP are set for a good election, even if there are some seat losses which is common for a governing party in these type of elections.
🔴 Labour
(could be between 21-27%)
If this projections proves well, then Labour is heading back into second place, a position they’ve not been in since 2016 when they were replaced by the Conservatives at the Scottish Parliament election.
Labour are likely to benefit from the Conservative downfall in Scotland if polls are anything to go by. They will likely make gains in wards where they lost to the Conservatives in 2017. The majority of the Labour vote could come from pro-UK voters, disgruntled with the Conservatives which gives Labour confidence to say that they are the leading party that can take on the SNP.
🔵 Conservatives
(could be between 15-21%)
The Conservatives are anticipating a string of defeats amid the ongoing scandals engulfing the UK Government which has the potential to have an effect on voters. A lot of Conservative local council candidates are aiming to distance themselves away from those scandals.
The Scottish Conservatives are projected to go back down to third place and if that does prove to be the case, it could put pressure on Douglas Ross and could raise questions if he is truly up for the job.
BritainElects is currently projecting that the Scottish Conservatives are set to lose 84 seats and this seems to be mostly at the expense of Scottish Labour. It is kind of similar to 2017 when the Conservatives took seats off Labour and the change was almost identical.
🟠Liberal Democrats
(could be between 5-11%)
The Liberal Democrats are in an interesting position. We are projecting them on 7% which is up 1% from 2017. The party seems to be in a static position as their performance in polls at all levels are on average around 7-8%.
🟢 Scottish Greens
(could be between 3-9%)
We are projecting the Scottish Greens on 6% which is 2% up from 2017. After entering a co-operation agreement with the SNP last year, it does look like it has not dented support for the party, in fact, the Scottish Greens have actually increased in support. The party could have some breakthroughs, they are hoping to gain seats outwith the two major cities which could certainly be possible but polling experts believe it is a long stretch.
âš« Others (Independents, Alba etc.)
We’re projecting other parties such as Alba along with independent candidates on 7%. Alba have remained on 1-3% in the polls and their leader, Alex Salmond, is hoping to breakthrough in this election. It remains to be seen if Alba will win seats at the election but as said before, we just have to wait and see.
Our projections for the local elections have seen Alba polling at 1-2%. Independent candidates in Scotland are lower than in 2017 but they are still standing and some will be elected.
| 2017 largest parties | 2017 results | Final projection |
| 🟡 SNP Largest party in 18 councils (2 tied) | Aberdeen City Argyll and Bute Clackmannanshire Dundee City East Ayrshire East Dunbartonshire City of Edinburgh Falkirk Fife Glasgow City Moray North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire West Lothian | Aberdeen City Aberdeenshire Argyll and Bute Clackmannanshire Dundee City East Ayrshire East Dunbartonshire City of Edinburgh Falkirk Fife Glasgow City Moray North Lanarkshire Perth and Kinross Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire West Lothian |
| 🔵 Conservative Largest party in 7 councils (1 tied) | Aberdeenshire Dumfries and Galloway East Renfrewshire Perth and Kinross Scottish Borders South Ayrshire | Dumfries and Galloway East Renfrewshirre Scottish Borders South Ayrshire |
| 🟣 Independent Largest group in 5 councils (1 tied) | Highland Na h-Eileanan Siar Orkney Shetland | Highland Na h-Eileanan Siar Orkney Shetland |
| 🔴 Labour Largest party in 3 councils (1 tied) | East Lothian Inverclyde Midlothian | East Lothian Inverclyde Midlothian |
| Largest tied parties in council | ||
| 🟡🔵 SNP-Con | Stirling | |
| 🟡🔴 SNP-Lab | North Ayrshire | |
| 🟡🟣 SNP-Ind | Angus |
Ventus 